Friday, June 20, 2008

Short Financials Don't Lose Your Shirt

Please take a look at the one year chart of Citigroup in the daily time frame and tell me you see support under 19. I see squat, nota. In the 10 day 15 minute chart you can see a bottom at 19 last Wednesday June 11, then a second bottom yesterday June 19 at 19.50. Now if the stock goes back above that 21.5 in between June 11 and June 19, then we will have a small W formation on Citi: but if Citi goes under 19 there's nothing but air.

The short interest on financials right now is intense as Citigroup has pre announced what we all knew anyway, that there will be massive second quarter write downs. We will short Citi on a break below 19 with a 1/4 to 1/2 position to start. Before you call me crazy while you load your boat answer me this Riddler, If we all know they're broke why is Citi at 20 anyway? Answer Batman, PLUNGERS.

But I see more Armageddon in this than other blogs I look at. This is a tectonic battle between the shorts and the plungers. Remember the FED is one of the plungers and they can electronically transfer as much into Citi shares as they want enough to buy them all, and do it for every stock on every exchange. This is extraordinarily inflationary and becomes like pushing a string, but they can squeeze a lot of shorts out in the process. So don't get caught, if the plungers win this round keep you cash for the next. Meanwhile if they lose I see the total stock market implosion right here right now, so there will be a lot to catch.

So the call is short Citigroup at 18.5, Stop at 20.25.

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