Sunday, June 7, 2009

Trade Alert: IVV SPY

If watching this market grind steadily higher while you're short makes you feel like dragging finger nails across a chalk board, it's supposed to. That's what a short squeeze is and that's how they do it, till you can't take it anymore. Ok understand this the rally is a rally and has to be respected for what it is. But understand what it is not, it is not a recovery, it's just another bubble, and sooner or latter it will be exposed for just that. But what to do if your short. If you can hold on, do. I was way underwater in GLD and SLV, but now I'm up in those and down in FAZ and SKF. I will hold both, but what if you are way underwater in the SPY, but you don't want to take a loss or keep hemorrhaging paper losses or get a margin call.
First lets look at the SPY.



You can see the index has broken out above it's 100 and 200 day moving averages and based on that alone could easily break 100, painful if you short. Also I would not put much faith in the stochastic showing the overbought condition of SPY. Stochastic get skewed during a run in the direction of the run! As long as this index is above the 200 dma which is flatting out and turning up it is a very likely threat to hit 100. You still don't want to cover just to watch it fall so what do you do? Take a careful look at the chart of the IVV below and see what you see.



YUP it's an exact duplicate of the SPY. If you are short the SPY I would open a position in the IVV tomorrow, you have to because the SPY is above the 200 dma and getting more bullish. To be more specific say you are short 100 shares of the SPY, then open a long position of at least 25 shares in the IVV tomorrow and hold as long as the index is above the 200 dma. Certainly no stop on IVV should be much below 90.

You will have to add to the IVV if the SPY keeps climbing. The least capital intensive way to do this is to cover shares of SPY at say 100 and let the IVV climb. When the IVV turns down sell and sell short the same number of shares of SPY at the same price. We can discuss this when the time comes, which may be this week or never.

Now this will not make you rich overnight or even recover all your SPY, but it will give you staying power, and add up when this bull run is revealed for the bull sh!t it is.

I don't intend to make this live trade unless someone comments and wants me to in which case I'll do it.

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