Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Trade Update: JPM

Well I almost have ESP because JP Morgan came up to our stop of $43.89 and then retreated back again. The day's high was $44.02. This is the third time that we have been stopped out to the dime.

It might not be such a bad thing. You can see how the price came right up to the top of the down trending channel in the 15 minute time period. It was a high volume final hour as well.

Now take a look at the 52 week chart in the daily time frame above. You can see how yesterday's candle just touched or pierced the top of the downtrend that formed in early April. When trend lines like that are broken there is a good chance that a change of trend is occurring. Will JPM break the trend? You can never be sure until after, but a look down at the stochastic gives a good clue. Notice how they are turning up from the deeply oversold range, with the red line crossing over the blue line. We will have to wait and see which way it breaks.

There is a very compelling short case to be made if JPM sinks below the $42 zone. If you are unaccustomed to looking at charts like this one just stare at dome that has developed since the first trading day of the year above $42.00. On that day $42 switched from resistance to support. It will switch back again if Morgan's shares slip back below it.

The above is all guess work, all we know for sure is that we sold at $47.20 and bought back at $43.89, and are now out of the market.

Short JPM @ $47.20
Buy Stop @ $43.89

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