Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Trade Update: SLV

We were stopped out of our SLV short @ 170.56 and are out of the position. We were short 25 shares from 198.51 and short 25 shares from 180.90. We will look to reenter, but just where and when is really a US dollar story. After a protracted collapse the dollar is in dead cat bounce, once that kitty rolls back over silver will soar again. The real question is where will capitulation take place on the US dollar? When it does it will be very profitable to be out in front of it via silver.

Looking at the daily chart of SLV the huge double top from the 190 to 210 range is prominent and despite today's gains it will not be easily defeated. In fact this retracement after the roughly 50 point fall is an extraordinarily ordinary retracement. By the time SLV gets back to 190 the stochastic should be rolling over and we will be looking to enter for the next leg down. The point or top of the old wedge is at about 160 and that is where my finger will start to twitch for a long trade. Otherwise the prices will breakout above 210 on the way to new highs. If SLV breaks out above 210 we will be forced to get on board, but the battle between 190 and 210 (the range of the double top formation) will be epic. There is still a lot of money to be wrung from suckers (novice investors) long and short alike.

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