Saturday, February 12, 2011

Trade Update: OIL

To see why I moved the stop up in OIL just take a look at the action from the last week in January to yesterday's close. Notice how the price rebounded from this $23.50 range went up $2 or so and now here we are again. What will happen next? I have no idea, but if OIL trades back up and can break the $25 zone, then we will look back at yesterday to say that was the day when OIL put in a double bottom and all will be well.

On the other hand if OIL breaks down under $23.5, then the 50 day moving average looms ever so close at $23.28. A strong break of the 50 day could send the shares below nearest support at $22.5. How likely is a break of the 50 day? Well take a look at the 50 day itself and the stochastics and the MACD. Notice the 50 dma is rolling over. That is it's slope has turned from positive to slightly negative. The stochastics and MACD are already well entrenched in a down trend showing no sign of turning up. Yes they are in the slightly oversold zone, but don't let that fool you. They can be that way for a long time. If the double bottom fails OIL can fall far and fast and I see no reason to give up $100 by holding the stop at $22.10.

Now I am not saying that OIL will crash. What I am saying is that if it does it will most likely do it fast and before you can do anything about it unless you can watch the market all day long. So, unless you have that luxury tighten up your stop to $23.10.

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