Thursday, October 6, 2011

Trade Update: SKF

There's the 26-week chart of SKF. Notice how resistance at $67.50 was broken in August and since then all of the trading has taken place above $70. So, the range between approximately $67 and $70 is support.

Another thing to do watch is the 50 day moving average which as you can see has acted as a very nice support right up until last night close at $77.88. If $77.88 is broken with any strength tomorrow then the index will probably go all the way back down to the $70 range. Remember that October is exceptionally bullish so the risk is up for the market or down for SKF. Beyond that they only thing you can say is that SKF is range bound between $70 and $95.

There are fundamental considerations too. It's very likely that Bank of America will be getting another bailout. Four years ago banks rallied when they got bailed out, but I think bailout fatigue is setting in now. In other words bailouts are no longer sexy. So, if you are underwater on SKF there see no reason to sell at a loss. Unlike a house the market will crash again and SKF will recover. Remember long-term support on the DOW is about 6000. I say 6000, some people say 3000. Just try to imagine what SKF will be like then.

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