Thursday, March 12, 2009

Trade Alert: OIL USO

OK Sports fans here we go. The mainstream financial media won't tell you until it's too late, but natural gas, oil, and metals are bottoming or have bottomed. Lets take a look at oil.

The first thing that stands out to me is the massive volume from December through March. Notice how the vloume trails off after the huge cliff dive from the 100s, saying the selling is abating.  Now look at the 100 dma and you can see it just begining to turn up, although the 200 dma shows no signs of life, the dicotomy is more explicit in the sharply falling stochastics. 

This is large sacle analysis, but it's enough to see that deflationary days are numbered and the USO is a must buyover $30.  I'll put out an Alert most likely with a buy stop on the USO, to buy a 1/4 position, with a stop of $30.55.

Now look at the OIL. You can just take the chart of USO and translate it down by $10.00 and you get the OIL. So you can buy OIL $10 cheaper and possibly get the same reward. The only problem with OIL is that the insolvent Barclay's owns it, so be nimble. 

Upshot on OIL is you should put a buy stop order on OIL, to buy a 1/4 position, with a stop price $20.55.

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