Tuesday, May 5, 2009

A Bull Sh!t Rally

This goes under the heading of trade what you see, and what you have seen since March 1, or earnings season is a Bull Sh!t rally. A Bull Sh!t rally, but a rally none the less. I did not respect the rally enough to buy into it, (another way to say I missed it), but I did have enough respect not to short it. So here we sit on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to short, but with everyone short or looking to go short we may need one more rally first. 



Novice investors may wonder why not just short into the  30% rally. Well the % is big but the $ is small e.g. Citi is selling under $4.00 per share. Another reason to wait is the possibility of a short squeeze. That high short interest is an extremely bullish indicator. with short interest that high the bulls will likely give it one more shot. Why not the rewards could be huge.. As far as I'm concerned I missed the rally, but I won't chase it. Think  of it this way, the more we miss on the up side the more there is to gain on the down and believe me, the downside is safer, a lot safer.

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