Friday, May 8, 2009

Trade Alert: GS IYF

Right now all eyes are short as we all know the the rally is built on a foundation of hype and bull shit.But the rally keeps on rallying and it will have to stop before I believe that's it's done. In fact I really think too many people are too negative right now for the market to fall. In other words I think there is another short squeeze in the making. Take a look at the financials.



When the IYF broke $40 a few days ago it was a technical break out and it was a good place to jump aboard. Now the EFT is in a no man's land between the 100 dma and 200 dma. As the index climbs on bull shit news ranging from rigged earnings on one time off items and the scam test, it put our short position deeper under water. I want to hedge those positions with IYF, but this index moves too slowly to be of much use so I'll do it with the leader of the pack Goldman Sachs GS.



You can see Goldman is in a 45 degree uptrend and will be in one until it breaks down. Don't concern your self with the stochastics as the data has by now badly skewed the indicator in the direction of the trend. The low volume is an early warning indicator that the trend is about to end, but it ain't till it's over.

Lets wait until Monday for GS to break $140 again. We will enter there with 1/4 position using $140 as a stop. Also I'll use the IYF as a more conservative hedge on a break of it's 200 dma.

No comments: