Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Trade Update: GLD

There's the 52-week chart of GLD, but just pay attention to the last month. There was a 26 point breakaway from $160 during the month of August. Notice how high above it all it seems. Like on a cloud above $160. I.e. overextended. From the high of $184.82 it tried to sell off, but found support at the $165 area. All of that action under volume which dwarfs the normal monthly volume for GLD. You have to see the volume at the bottom of the chart to give justice to what I'm saying. So, what will happen next? To answer that question let's take a look at what is happening now, namely that a triangle is forming between $165 and $185.

To see what I'm talking about draw a straight line on the chart from $165, which occurred four trading days ago to last night's close at $179.10. Then draw the line from the 52-week high of $184.82 to last night's close. Now think about all of that radical action taking place, under enormous volume between those two lines. It can't take place between those two lines forever. In fact judging by the tightness of the triangle formed so far it will likely break soon.

So, which ever way it breaks up above the downtrend line or down below the up trend line doesn't matter, that is probably the future direction of GLD.

Maybe you can see it better on the 10 day chart in the fifteen minute time period. Normally I wait for the triangle pattern to break before taking a position. I prefer to lose some profits in the initial gap in return for the increase certainty. But as I am biased to the upside on GLD we took half a position at $178.62. We will probably just hold it no matter what happens, and add to it the triangle resolves itself to the upside as anticipated.

Buy 50 shares of GLD at $178.62
Stop @ at **

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