Sunday, August 7, 2011

Trade Update: SPX


Look at how the SPX has just crashed through the bottom of its Bollinger band. On the chart it looks like it has busted outside of the band, which is a mathematical impossibility. But the price decline was so steep that the chart graphics couldn't keep up. Notice the last days candel actually interferes with the volume bars on the chart. To see how extreme the selling was look at the bottom of the chart. Volume like that usually indicates a washout. In fact we did get a bit of a bounce when the the SPX went from a low of 1,168.09 all the way back up to 12,150.15. But it couldn't hold those numbers and it fell all the way back to 11,185 before finally settling in just under 12,000.

We entered long on the SPX with 50 shares in a two dollars stop. That strategy cost us $100. The SPX is going to make a big move in one direction or another. The problem is that as usual the direction isn't clear. It has already had a tremendous crash. I expect an implosion all the way back down to old support at least 800. But markets don't usually move in straight lines and this one has moved a long way down in a very short time. Also the VIX hit a 52 week high of 39.25 before closing at 32. The motto for the VIX goes, when the VIX is high you buy.

Remember this too, it's Wall Street's job to get you so scared that you'll sell your shares at any price just to save what cash you have left. Then the professionals we just stared you out of your shares go in and buy the same shares on the cheap. Suddenly the same shares sold at a loss are well above where you bought them. This is no accident.

Right now we are out of the market. Let's wait to get a clear direction before stepping back in with partial positions.

Buy 1/2 SPX @ 1208.42
Stop at 1206.42

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